2005 Philippine Politics in Review
by Prof. John N. Ponsaran
Development Studies Program
University of the Philippines-Manila
High-profile scandals have shaken the Arroyo administration—one after the other. Charges of illegal gambling pay-off dubbed as the ‘jueteng-gate scandal’ were also leveled against her husband, eldest son and brother-in-law. Ironically, the First Family is also being charged of the same offense which troubled the First Family of former President Estrada towards the end of his incumbency. Mrs. Arroyo, on the other hand, reiterates that the allegations hurled against her family are baseless and politically-motivated.
Another major blow for Mrs. Arroyo was the so-called “Hello, Garci” scandal. The alleged wiretapped phone conversation between Mrs. Arroyo and former Comelec Commissioner Virgilio Garcillano fueled the suspicion that massive and well-orchestrated poll fraud transpired in the 2004 election thereby putting her legal mandate as president in question. The controversial wiretapped recordings contained the details of the following points of conversation which bolstered the public suspicion about her illegitimacy:
• means to guarantee her presidential victory (legal or otherwise)
• means to hold back a potential witness to the election fraud allegations
• means to ensure political loyalty of generals in the military hierarchy
On June 27 this year, or 3 weeks after the tapes were released, Mrs. Arroyo admitted for speaking to a Comelec official at the height of the election canvassing, and apologized for doing so. But she vehemently denied that she was behind any move to manipulate the election results. The Palace likewise dismissed the testimonies of the witnesses as mere fabrications to discredit her administration.
The alleged military connection in the vote-rigging of 2004 election results brings to the fore yet another suspicion that the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) is deeply involved in partisan politics. Section 5 Paragraph 3 of Article XVI (General Provisions) of the 1987 Constitution states that “The armed forces shall be insulated from partisan politics. No member of the military shall engage directly or indirectly in any partisan political activity except to vote.”
In her bid to ensure political survival, Mrs. Arroyo used the politics of patronage and accommodation to gain needed support.
A case in point is the alleged fertilizer scam. Local executives and congressmen were said to have benefited from the Php 728 million fertilizer fund in exchange for their support for the presidential bid of Mrs. Arroyo. Former Undersecretary Jocelyn Bolante, the principal figure in the alleged scam, sneaked out of the country when it was at its height. Suspicions were raised that the Palace may have been behind his escape in an attempt to cover up the truth. The same suspicion was elicited when Mr. Garcilliano was nowhere to be found during the height of the congressional inquiry.
Events have placed Mrs. Arroyo’s moral authority to govern in question.
The leadership crisis that has beset the presidency has led to various alternative proposals from sectors representing the entire political spectrum. These include military junta, democratic people’s council, constitutional succession of the Vice-President, transition caretaker government, martial law, power-sharing with the opposition (60-40 option), snap election, and Charter change (Cha-cha). This has only further heightened the level of uncertainty in the public’s mind.
Meanwhile, bureaucratic corruption and inefficiency have taken a heavy toll on the country’s economic performance. In the 2005 Index of Economic Freedom reported by The Heritage and The Wall Street Journal, the Philippines ranked 90 out of the 161 countries in terms of economic freedom. The report attributes the poor performance of the country to political instability, poor governance, economic mismanagement and vulnerability to external shocks. It also underscored that cases of corruption continue to exist up to the highest levels of government.
Impeachment Bid: A Political Battle
Initially the leaders of the political opposition (forerunners of the impeachment bid) were confident that the case against Mrs. Arroyo was very strong so that the possibility of turning it over to the Senate for full trial was very high as only one-third of congressmen were needed.
However, in support of her continued stayed in office, pro-Arroyo solons used legal maneuvers and numerical supremacy to thwart the impeachment complaint. The complaint was deemed insufficient in substance and so was not forwarded to the Senate for investigation. Consequently, a series of street protests occurred which fueled a higher level of discontent but were not widely supported.
Despite not being given the impeachment complaint to review, the Senate continued independent inquiries, which the Palace considered as a ‘serial impeachment’ masquerading as a legitimate senate investigation, to revive the charges against the President. The supporters of Mrs. Arroyo claimed that these Senate probes are mere ‘re-runs’ of the charges in the thwarted impeachment bid and were bit a desperate attempt to grab political power from the Arroyo government.
People’s Initiatives: Hallmark of Democracy
Year 2005 saw greater, albeit loosely consolidated, civil society participation in influencing and redirecting the political affairs of the country.
One of the more active is the Black and White Movement (BWM). BWM, a broad coalition of civil society groups, aims for the non-violent removal of Mrs. Arroyo from office through a nationwide information and signature campaign. In order to ensure an honest and credible election, BWM is also demanding a major overhaul of the Commission on Elections (Comelec). The BWM administrative reform agenda includes election, judicial, economic, pro-poor, bureaucratic, military and constitutional reforms.
Another people’s initiative is the Citizen’s Congress for Truth and Accountability (CCTA). CCTA was formed by various civil society groups headed by former Vice-President Teofisto Guingona to serve as a fact-finding body where evidence about the alleged 2004 election fraud, massive human rights violations, and dubious contracts entered into by the government under the Arroyo administration (i.e., Venable LLP contract, the Northrail project, etc.) can be presented and investigated.
The Palace contends that the investigation by the CCTA has no legal basis and that the people behind it may even be charged for inciting to sedition. It also dismissed CCTA as a mere ‘kangaroo court’ and a mockery of the judicial process.
Street parliamentarians have been active rabid critics of the Arroyo administration and have staged a series of rallies. Many in society, especially the middle class, have little optimism anything positive expected from the present dispensation. On top of that, no opposition leader has arisen to unite their ranks.
The Contentious Timing of Cha-cha
Former President Fidel V. Ramos and Speaker Jose de Venecia, staunch allies of President Arroyo, have been in the forefront of the move to initiate a change in the constitution (Charter change or Cha-cha). For Mr. Ramos, “The only solution to the country’s problem will be an accelerated Cha-cha.” On how to do it, Speaker de Venecia proposed the transformation of the Congress into a Constituent Assembly (ConAss) where both Chambers would sit as one Charter-amending body to facilitate the proposed constitutional changes. Most senators are against it, preferring a Constitutional Convention (ConCon) instead. Here, we see a potential Senate-House of Representatives stand-off.
The Cha-cha proposal surfaced at the height of the impeachment motion against the President leading to the perception by the political opposition that it is a smokescreen to divert the public’s attention from Mrs. Arroyo’s alleged direct hand over the 2004 election fraud. For them, Cha-cha is uncalled for and untimely especially at this point of intense political crisis and divisiveness.
ConCom: Purveyor of Cha-cha?
To jump-start the drafting of the proposal for Cha-cha, a consultative constitutional commission (ConCom) headed by Dr. Jose Abueva was convened by the Palace. According to the Palace, the national delegates are men and women of national standing, experienced in government or with known competence and credibility in their respective fields. The regional delegates, on the other hand, are selected from the sectors of the peasants, fisherfolks, indigenous people, laborers, professionals, military, academic and business, among others. Recently, Mrs. Arroyo increased the number of ConCom delegates from 50 to 55 to allow wider participation and broader representation of constituencies at the national, regional and sectoral levels.
ConCom’s areas of concern include:
• shift from presidential to parliamentary form of government
• shift from unitary to federal government
• political reform
• judicial reform
• electoral reform
• economic reform
The political opposition, on the other hand, perceives ConCom as a mere rubber stamp of the Palace. In the same vein, the Philippine Center for Investigative Journalism (PCIJ) views it as a bid by Mrs. Arroyo to popularize Cha-cha so as to gain a wide base of support. Nationalists strongly argue that the proposed amendments in the economic provisions to allow 100% full liberalization of the economy will further trample upon the national sovereignty of the Philippines.
Drumbeaters of Federalism
According to Senator Aquilino Pimentel, a Mindanaoan, the shift from unitary to federal form of government will answer the long-running problem of poverty and secessionism in Muslim Mindanao. Local government leaders who advocate federalism point out that it will facilitate political reform, institutionalize decentralization and strengthen local economies. ConCom reported that federalism enjoys strong support from people in Visayas and Mindanao. This can be attributed to the strong sentiment of Visayans and Mindanaoans against the dominance of so called ‘Imperial Manila,’ where economic growth and development is concentrated.
For her part, Mrs. Arroyo has stated that the shift to a parliamentary-federal government will overhaul the country’s dysfunctional political system and prevent looming anarchy, which emasculates the government and hinders an economy “poised for take-off.” She argues that the presidential system only results in deadlock which hinders the swift passage of much-needed legislative socio-economic reforms. Under a parliamentary system, she emphasized that the Palace-Senate stand-off over cases similar to that of the detention of National Security Adviser Norberto Gonzales will be avoided.
She cautions that if the presidential form of government is retained, her predicament will just be replicated with every presidency. As such, it will only perpetuate the cycle of political instability. To replace a president under a presidential system is a complicated and dislocative effort, while to change a prime minister only requires a vote of no confidence in the parliament. But will there be any difference at all in a new system with the same set of faces?
Bottom line: With the present brand of political culture in the Philippines, any form of government will only lead to a vicious cycle of capricious change.
(Un)Popularity of GMA
Mrs. Arroyo placed no. 4 in the U.S.-based Forbes magazine’s list of the world’s 100 most powerful women. The ranking was mainly based on visibility and economic impact. But Forbes magazine cautioned that President Arroyo “could be off” should the impeachment proceeding prosper in proving her guilty of the accusations hurled against her. In the event, they didn’t prosper.
The public, however, has a far less favorable opinion of her with some 52% of the populace disapproving of her performance and a staggering 64% wanting her out of office. In reaction, Mrs. Arroyo had this to say, “The presidency is not a popularity contest because in order to fix things, we have to do things that are unpopular.” She assured the business community that she would remain committed to focusing on her job and fully carrying out her economic recovery reforms. But except for a couple of tax measures it’s not too clear what these are. What the administration claims to be strong points are:
• record high tourist arrivals
• potential for medical/health tourism
• stronger currency against the dollar
• large inflow of remittances from OFWs
• resilient drive against bird flu and international terrorism
• expanding call center industry and other BPOs
She lamented the fact that media has downplayed these accomplishments in favor of the bad news, and castigated media for being a party to the propaganda warfare launched by the political opposition to destabilize her administration.
Table 1: Comparative Performance Ratings of Mrs. Arroyo
(Pulse Asia Survey, March-October 2005)
Response March ‘05* June ‘05 July ‘05 October ‘05
Approve 38 25 19 24
Undecided 27 28 22 24
Disapprove 34 46 58 52
Net 4 -21 -39 -28
*before the Garci controversy erupted
Table 2: Most Beneficial Political Scenario
(Pulse Asia Survey, October 15-27, 2005)
Most Beneficial Political Scenario %
President Arroyo resigns 58
President Arroyo continues 35
A coup takes place 4
A foreign government gets involved 2
Looming Martial Law?
Members of the opposition perceive the possible passage of the anti-terrorism bill as a sign of a looming martial law regime. Senator Jinggoy Estrada and Rep. Roilo Golez who were once sponsors of the anti-terrorism bill have withdrawn their support because of the possibility that the Palace might use it against the ranks of the opposition. Such fear would seem exaggerated, nonetheless. But some of the contentious provisions questioned by the opposition such as the prolonged detention without charges, warrantless arrests and restriction on freedom of association could, indeed, be misused.
Sociologist Randy David has warned that the anti-terror bill could bring with it the danger of easily being used as an instrument to exercise unaccountable power. Senate President Franklin Drilon, on the other hand, disagrees, pointing out that even the most democratic states like U.S. and Great Britain have anti-terror legislation.
Human rights advocates underscore the seeming parallelisms of Mrs. Arroyo’s regime with that of the Marcos dictatorship in the 1970’s with the implementation of a series of pre-emptive policies such as Executive 0rder 464 (which requires that all administration personnel obtain the President’s permission before testifying in Congress), calibrated pre-emptive response (that allows the police to “quell” street demonstrations) and revival of Marcos’ B.P. 880 (which restrains street protests without permit). Rather than quelling demonstrations these preemptive acts may, in fact, heighten them.
Comparisons were also made between the presidencies of Mrs. Arroyo and Mr. Estrada with respect to how their respective administrations handled legitimate dissent. References to the Arroyo administration were made to highlight the manner of dispersing civil disturbances with the use of the state’s security forces. Mr. Estrada was said to have been more tolerant of legitimate dissent like street protests. Media organizations which are critical of her presidency are equally bothered with the pattern of her administration’s anti-democratic leanings.
The Palace, however, justifies these pre-emptive policies as necessary to maintain the chain of command and protect commerce, mobility, livelihood and the over-all peace and order of the nation.
The idea of a martial law does not sit well with the public. In fact, almost 70% of the population is against it. According to the AFP, the current situation does not warrant it yet—which renders the public in suspended terror.
The Politics of Power Dynamics
There was a move in the Upper House to replace Senate President Franklin Drilon is seen as an off-shoot of his withdrawal of support from President Arroyo, but it failed. Sen. Drilon, however, does have a term-sharing arrangement with Sen. Manny Villar with the changeover occurring in July 2006. The preference of some senators for Sen. Villar over Sen. Drilon to head the Senate is bolstered by the former’s perceived capacity to tread its path into becoming a truly independent institution while pursuing a ‘principled cooperation” with the Palace in the area of legislation (especially with pro-poor legislative agenda).
Attempts to form a new majority coalition will remain as a party agenda. Expectedly, this will result to a new re-alignment of forces in the Senate. The configuration in the Upper Chamber, as well as in the other branches of the government, is still as unpredictable given the politics of personality and personal convenience inherent in the Philippine political system.
The Lakas-Christian and Muslim Democrats (Lakas-CMD), party of the President, is organizing towards strengthening itself in preparation for shift in the form of government from presidential to parliamentary. Cabinet revamps are also underway with a number of positions still being held by Officers-in-Charge, and as the President realigns her political forces.
The recent move to declare all committee chairmanships vacant in the House of Representatives is an off-shoot of the impeachment case, with those who supported impeachment losing their chairmanships. The pro-GMA bloc justified the reorganization as being to maintain the cohesiveness of the majority, not to get back at former GMA supporters who sided with the opposition during the impeachment bid.
The Senate and the House of Representative are entangled in another political stand-off involving the Senate hearings over the fertilizer fund scam which involves several congressmen who are calling on the Senate to exercise inter-parliamentary courtesy. Apparently this is considered more important than finding out if some scandalous activity did occur. Another source of growing political tension between the two Chambers is the House’s call for a unicameral legislature, which for obvious reasons the Senate does not support.
Efforts were made by the President to forge unity in the government earlier this year when she organized a summit to try to establish a government of national unity and reconciliation by convening both pro- and anti-administration political parties. But it didn’t work, only the confrontational politics of Mrs. Arroyo took its toll.
The lack of closure in the alleged vote rigging in the 2004 elections will continue to haunt the President with the appearance of Mr. Garcillano complicating the picture. A second impeachment case will inevitably be attempted in June next year but, like the first, is unlikely to prosper. But, also like the first, will destruct the country’s leaders from focusing on the work they really have to do.
