Philippine Political Outlook
by John N. Ponsaran
For the past weeks, President Gloria Macapagal-Arroyo’s brand of politics turned out to be very confrontational in character--enough to bring about restiveness in the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) and in both Houses of Congress. By any measure, a heavily polarized Philippines will surely have a hard-time to pose for an economic take-off. Is Arroyo herself the divisive element? That is the over-arching question at hand.
The leadership crisis that beset the presidency has brought in various alternative proposals from sectors representing the entire spectrum of political orientations such as military take-over, democratic people’s council, constitutional succession of the Vice-President, transition caretaker government, martial law, and charter change (cha-cha). This has rendered the public and the business sectors on the edge of their seats in apprehension.
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Presently, the Arroyo administration is strongly pushing for a shift from a presidential-unitary to a parliamentary-federal form of government purportedly to undertake much-needed political and socio-economic reforms. This move is strongly supported by the House of Representatives and the local government units (LGUs). In preparation, a consultative constitutional commission (ConCom) headed by Dr. Jose Abueva of the Citizen’s Movement for Federal Philippines was convened by the Palace to jump-start the drafting of the proposal for cha-cha. Areas of vital concerns include a shift to parliamentary-federal government, political and electoral reforms. But the loosely consolidated opposition believes that a cha-cha is uncalled for and untimely especially at this point of intense political crisis and divisiveness. Clouds of doubt hang over cha-cha as it is seen as a mere smokescreen to divert the public’s attention from Arroyo’s alleged direct hand over the 2004 election fraud or the so-called Garci controversy.
Opposition leaders, on the other hand, perceive the possible passage of the anti-terrorism bill as a sign of a looming martial law regime. Human rights advocates underscore the seeming parallelisms of Arroyo’s regime with that of Marcos’ with the implementation of series of pre-emptive policies such as E.0. 464, calibrated pre-emptive response (CPR) and B.P. 880 (Public Assembly Act of 1985). In a vicious cycle, these will only bring about more Gloria resign movements along the streets. Columnist Condrado De Quiros has this to say:
There are those who admire the President for displaying what they think is strength; and I do not doubt that the Chief Executive considers herself a strong person-both in terms of will and intellect. But the political reality is, she is weak; and her weakness is daily demonstrated by the means she uses to show strength.
The Palace however justifies all these pre-emptive policies to uphold executive prerogative and the chain of command and protect commerce, mobility, livelihood and the over-all peace and order of the nation.
Arroyo is obviously bent on thwarting all stumbling blocks that the political opposition and the mass movement hurl its way—in all possible means. But public opinion should not be neglected altogether. In a nationwide survey for the 3rd quarter conducted by Ibon Foundation, an independent think tank, Filipino’s net satisfaction rating of Arroyo’s performance dropped to its lowest rating of -74.7%--a telling sign of public distrust and disenchantment in a national scale.
The future of Philippine politics is not as bleak as it seemingly appears in media. The Senate has remained an effective fiscalizing agent. The civil society has furthered its advocacy to demand a more accountable, responsive, effective and participatory governance in the national and local levels. Correspondingly, alternative media institutions have also remained vigilant in reporting and analyzing political events as they unfold. The Supreme Court remains as the final arbiter of contentious judicial and even political issues. Open dialogue is still practiced while civil service is working to streamline its operations to improve the business of government.
